State Audit: Many revenues will fluctuate sharply

In a report just submitted to the National Assembly, State Auditor General Ho Duc Phoc said that the Government estimated that the whole year of revenue collection will reach VND 1,457.3 trillion, exceeding VND 46 trillion (+ 3.3%). ) compared to estimates, up 2.3% compared to 2018.

In particular, the domestic revenues, revenues from crude oil, the balance of revenues from import and export activities are estimated to increase compared with estimates from 1.9% to 11.5%. Central budget revenues exceeded the second year budget estimates for a second consecutive year but accounted for just over 56% of total state budget revenues, lower than the set target of 60-65%.

Among the contents of the State Audit’s request, the Government noted that revenue from crude oil was paid. This revenue was estimated to increase by VND 2.2 trillion (+ 4.9%) compared to the estimate, but a decrease of VND 19.2 trillion (-29.1%) compared to the performance in 2018.

Crude oil production is estimated at 10.82 million tons for the whole year, with the estimated price of the whole year at the estimated price of 65 USD / barrel (although the price fluctuations in the past few months averaged 67.7 USD / barrel). Accordingly, revenue from crude oil in 2019 increased compared to the estimate mainly due to an estimated increase of 390 thousand tons compared to the plan.

Therefore, the State Audit requested the Government to closely follow the price fluctuations and analyze and evaluate the impact of revenue sources associated with the roadmap to increase the actual output of exploitation for the following years.

In 2020, according to the State Audit Report, the estimated revenue from crude oil is 35.2 trillion dong, accounting for 2.3% of total state budget balance, down 11.6 trillion dong against Estimated implementation in 2019 is equivalent to 16.6%.

This estimate is given with an estimated domestic production of 9.02 million tons in 2020, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared to the estimated implementation in 2019 (10.82 million tons), but the State Audit Office stressed. In fact, the output of exploitation in recent years has increased compared to the plan.

Therefore, the General Auditor proposes the Government to additionally evaluate the basis for forecasting crude oil exploitation plans of the following year.

Besides crude oil, the State Audit also stated a number of revenues to be analyzed and additionally assessed for construction establishments. For example, the revenue estimate from the State Bank’s revenue and expenditure difference in 2020 is 7.8 trillion VND, only 66.1% of the estimated estimate in 2019 (in 2019, the revenue and expenditure difference estimate in 2019 The State Bank is VND 4.5 trillion but estimated to be VND 11.8 trillion, an increase of 162.2%).

Or, revenue from personal income tax in 2020 is determined to increase by 15.4% compared to the estimated implementation in 2019, accounting for 8.5% of the total budget balance revenue, but may be affected by the adjustment of deduction. family circumstances in accordance with the Law on Personal Income Tax 2012.

Regarding this note, the State Audit explained, according to the statistics of the General Statistics Office, the CPI of the first 6 months of 2019 increased by 18.17% compared to July 1, 2013 (compared to the time). The Law on Personal Income Tax No. 26/2012 / QH13 takes effect) less than 20%, but it is expected that the CPI increase in 2019 will be less than 4% (according to the Government’s management plan), the CPI In 2019, compared to the time when the Law on Personal Income Tax No. 26/2012 / QH13 takes effect, it will be able to exceed 20%.

According to the State Audit Report, the Government expects that the total state budget revenue balance in 2020 will be 1,512.3 trillion dongs, an increase of 3.8% compared to the estimate in 2019, an increase of 7.2% over the with a 2019 estimate.

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