Vietnam will soon reach USD 500 billion in import-export turnover

Speaking at the Conference of coordinating the implementation of customs control, anti-smuggling before, during and after the Lunar New Year 2020 held by the Anti-smuggling Investigation Department (General Department of Customs) held on October 18, General Department Chief Nguyen Van Can said, the number of enterprises, declarations, import-export turnover of Vietnam are growing fast and scale is increasing.

“Currently, the whole country has nearly 100,000 enterprises with regular import and export activities, with more than 10 million declarations / year. The country’s import-export turnover is expected to reach US $ 500 billion in early December 2019” – The Director General said.

Looking at the statistics of the General Department of Customs and the growth rate of Vietnam’s import and export in the first months of 2019 and recent years, General Director Nguyen Van Can’s comments are completely feasible. .

In order to achieve the new milestone of US $ 500 billion of import-export turnover in 2019, our country has to achieve an average of US $ 41.7 billion per month.

By the General Department of Customs’s update, by the end of September, the total import-export turnover of the whole country reached more than 382.16 billion USD, on average each month reached nearly 42.5 billion USD.

Thus, over three-quarters of the year, the scale of import-export turnover reached more than 76.4%.

On the other hand, compared to the requirement, the average turnover in the past 9 months has been higher than 800 million USD / month (42.5 billion USD compared to 41.7 billion USD).

If the average turnover is maintained as in the first 9 months of the year, by the end of 2019, Vietnam’s import and export turnover will reach 510 billion USD.

However, the monitoring of import and export movements from the General Department of Customs statistics for many years shows that the growth rate and scale of import and export turnover at the end of the year are usually higher than the beginning of the year.

The reason is that in the first months of the year, our country has many holidays, long days like Tet, Lunar New Year, April 30 and May 1, so the actual number of days of business activities is often small. than the last months of the year. On the other hand, at the end of the year, to serve the Christmas shopping season or the Lunar New Year of Vietnam, the export turnover of both exports and imports tends to increase very sharply.

For example, in 2018, at the end of September, the total turnover reached US $ 352.61 billion, equivalent to 73.4% of the total turnover of the year. This proportion is low compared to 76.4% of the first 9 months of this year, as mentioned above.

On the other hand, the fact that in the first 9 months of 2019 also shows quite clearly that.

By halfway through the year (by the end of June 2019), the total import-export turnover of Vietnam only reached US $ 243.48 billion, averaging only US $ 40.58 billion per month.

But entering the 3 months of the third quarter, total turnover reached 138.68 billion USD. Thus, the average monthly turnover in this quarter reached US $ 46.23 billion.

If the fourth quarter maintains the average turnover like the third quarter, the total annual turnover of Vietnam will reach over 520 billion USD and thus forecast the turnover of 500 billion USD in early December 2019. basis.

In particular, as mentioned above, the practice of many years, turnover in the last months of the year, especially in the fourth quarter often reaches the highest number because this is the time to prepare goods for the biggest shopping occasions on. worldwide in the year such as Christmas, New Year, Lunar New Year in Vietnam and some Asian countries …

For example, in 2018, the total import-export turnover of the fourth quarter also accounted for more than a quarter of the whole 2018 (accounting for nearly 26.6%).

Therefore, it can be said that in 2019, Vietnam’s foreign economic activity continued to record a new milestone when it first reached the 500 billion USD mark.

Email us